Background

The historical record of large subduction earthquakes in Guerrero, Mexico, reveals the existence of a 230 km length segment below the coast where no major rupture has occurred in the past 60 years. Reliable quantification of the hazard associated with such a seismic gap is urgently needed for risk mitigation purposes by means of state-of-the-art observations and modeling. This project aims to develop disaster mitigation outcomes for prevention purposes in central Mexico based on megathrust earthquakes and tsunami scenarios generated from new, unprecedented geophysical observation across the Guerrero seismic gap. We also investigate similarities and differences between the subduction zones of Japan and Mexico to achieve a better understanding of the physical mechanisms leading to megathrust earthquakes and thus contributing to the prediction of future events.

Within five to ten years after the project, a semi-real-time tsunami- and earthquake-monitoring network detached from the sea-bottom observational technology introduced in the project, will be deployed offshore the coast of Mexico. We expect this infrastructure will contribute to the development of the National Tsunami Warning System (SINAT) and to the Mexican Earthquake Early Warning System (SASMEX) in the future. In addition, we expect the outcomes of the project for disaster mitigation to be spread out to various countries and regions in Latin America.